Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Close Update: A whole lotta nuttin.


So apparently what today indicates is that the market is going nowhere without gapping either up or down. It is going to take a pretty violent move to get things going and even so, moves that start from a standstill (which is what these past 5 or so trading days have been technically) are usually retraced at some point. So back to wait and see mode.

Idea: Long Heart Surgeons


New KFC "Double Down" Dumps the Bun
Sometimes a sandwich is so big, so tasty and so thick that those carb-loaded bookends we call buns just aren’t necessary.
That’s the premise behind Kentucky Fried Chicken’s latest calorie-laden creation: the Double Down Chicken Sandwich, two chicken fillets hugging cheeses, bacon and sauce, sans the bun.

KFC hasn’t released actual caloric counts, but has told media outlets such as the Huffington Post that it estimates the sandwich to weigh in at roughly 600 calories. The Vancouver Sun, however, estimates the Double Down at nearly double that number, with 1,228 calories.

KFC has made more than one headline this year with new products. Untold numbers of consumers flocked to the chain earlier this year hoping to get a free taste of KFC’s new grilled chicken. But Georgians shouldn’t rush to a nearby KFC for this bird, however, as it’s only being tested in parts of Nebraska and Rhode Island.

No word on whether the Double Down will be offered with two grilled fillets, instead.

Long awaited Market update


The yellow line I have drawn is the proverbial line in the sand. There are no outstanding requirements above the current price level of 1025 and there are a couple of outstanding requirements below. Most notably the 1018'50. For me to "buy" any rally to new highs having durable sponsorship I would expect that level and even down to 1015 to be tested before setting new highs. However this market has been ignoring most of what I like to see in a neat and tidy pattern so I will try and summarize best what the most likely outcomes will be:

If we close above this "line in the sand" then we are going back up to test the highs and any subsequent closes above 1035 will make me convinced we are in the beginnings of a new upleg to 1100+

If we close below the LITS (convincingly) then this means we are on our way to 1018'50 and then I will have to reassess depending on price action. But if 1015 breaks convincingly, let that be a great indicator that we might be starting a HUGE down leg back to at least 880 and maybe even 666

Ted Kennedy Dead at 77


Boston.com
Senator Edward M. Kennedy, who carried aloft the torch of a Massachusetts dynasty and a liberal ideology to the citadel of Senate power, but whose personal and political failings may have prevented him from realizing the ultimate prize of the presidency, died at his home in Hyannis Port last night after a battle with brain cancer. He was 77.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Chart it to Me!

Not really much to say here... You know what they say about pictures....

Global Recession Status


A very cool interactive map. Doesn't mean much, shows us where we have been. The important thing is where we are going......

Picture of the Day

Seth Godin on the tribes we lead

Absolutely fascinating... please watch

Court Orders Federal Reserve to Disclose Emergency Loan Details

Very Excited about all the upcoming data that must be divulged... From Bloomberg
The Federal Reserve must for the first time identify the companies in its emergency lending programs after losing a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.
...
The Fed has refused to name the financial firms it lent to or disclose the amounts or the assets put up as collateral under 11 programs, most put in place during the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression, saying that doing so might set off a run by depositors and unsettle shareholders.
...
The judge said the central bank “improperly withheld agency records” ... She gave the Fed five days to turn over documents it told the reporters it located ...

The case is Bloomberg LP v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 08-CV-9595, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

Well thats not how its supposed to happen!


I apologize for not updating my TA for quite some time now. I am in the process of switching charting software and i got caught up in all the new features. Anyhoo, just a quick note on today's morning action. Failed breakouts are not good for bullish chart patterns and unless we can close above the previous high of 1035 this damages any bullish sentiment tremendously. I will follow up after the close with some potential targets and what this means short term and long term.

Fun With Charts! The Road To Recovery?



Here is the market graph from Doug Short, Doug Short is matching up the market bottoms for four crashes (with an interim bottom for the Great Depression).

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

Nat Hentoff: I am finally scared of a White House administration

Nat Hentoff, the prodigious Village Voice writer who retired after 50 years in 2008 was given the following blurb in the NYT;
Across his 83 years, his three dozen books and his countless newspaper columns and magazine articles, Mr. Hentoff has championed free speech and opposed censorship of any kind, whether by liberals or conservatives. Few have more assiduously and consistently defended the right of people to express their views, no matter how objectionable.

The thing is that, agree with him or not, Nat Hentoff offers no opinion that isn’t supported by facts, diligently gathered.

Mr. Hentoff may not hear as well as he once did, or stand quite as straight. But he will not fade to silence.

Mr Hentoff has not faded into silence yet his coverage on Obama's Health care reform has been ignored by mainstream media. Obviously you know why. From August 19th;
I was not intimidated during J. Edgar Hoover's FBI hunt for reporters like me who criticized him. I railed against the Bush-Cheney war on the Bill of Rights without blinking. But now I am finally scared of a White House administration. President Obama's desired health care reform intends that a federal board (similar to the British model) — as in the Center for Health Outcomes Research and Evaluation in a current Democratic bill — decides whether your quality of life, regardless of your political party, merits government-controlled funds to keep you alive. Watch for that life-decider in the final bill. It's already in the stimulus bill signed into law.


The members of that ultimate federal board will themselves not have examined or seen the patient in question. For another example of the growing, tumultuous resistance to "Dr. Obama," particularly among seniors, there is a July 29 Washington Times editorial citing a line from a report written by a key adviser to Obama on cost-efficient health care, prominent bioethicist Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel (brother of White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel).


Emanuel writes about rationing health care for older Americans that "allocation (of medical care) by age is not invidious discrimination." (The Lancet, January 2009) He calls this form of rationing — which is fundamental to Obamacare goals — "the complete lives system." You see, at 65 or older, you've had more life years than a 25-year-old. As such, the latter can be more deserving of cost-efficient health care than older folks.


No matter what Congress does when it returns from its recess, rationing is a basic part of Obama's eventual master health care plan. Here is what Obama said in an April 28 New York Times interview (quoted in Washington Times July 9 editorial) in which he describes a government end-of-life services guide for the citizenry as we get to a certain age, or are in a certain grave condition. Our government will undertake, he says, a "very difficult democratic conversation" about how "the chronically ill and those toward the end of their lives are accounting for potentially 80 percent of the total health care" costs.
This end-of-life consultation has been stripped from the Senate Finance Committee bill because of democracy-in-action town-hall outcries but remains in three House bills.


A specific end-of-life proposal is in draft Section 1233 of H.R. 3200, a House Democratic health care bill that is echoed in two others that also call for versions of "advance care planning consultation" every five years — or sooner if the patient is diagnosed with a progressive or terminal illness.


As the Washington Post's Charles Lane penetratingly explains (Undue influence," Aug. 8): the government would pay doctors to discuss with Medicare patients explanations of "living wills and durable powers of attorney … and (provide) a list of national and state-specific resources to assist consumers and their families" on making advance-care planning (read end-of-life) decisions.


Significantly, Lane adds that, "The doctor 'shall' (that's an order) explain that Medicare pays for hospice care (hint, hint)."


But the Obama administration claims these fateful consultations are "purely voluntary." In response, Lane — who learned a lot about reading between the lines while the Washington Post's Supreme Court reporter — advises us:


"To me, 'purely voluntary' means 'not unless the patient requests one.'"


But Obamas' doctors will initiate these chats. "Patients," notes Lane, "may refuse without penalty, but many will bow to white-coated authority."


And who will these doctors be? What criteria will such Obama advisers as Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel set for conductors of end-of-life services?


I was alerted to Lanes' crucial cautionary advice — for those of use who may be influenced to attend the Obamacare twilight consultations — by Wesley J. Smith, a continually invaluable reporter and analyst of, as he calls his most recent book, the "Culture of Death: The Assault on Medical Ethics in America" (Encounter Books).


As more Americans became increasingly troubled by this and other fearful elements of Dr. Obama's cost-efficient health care regimen, Smith adds this vital advice, no matter what legislation Obama finally signs into law:


"Remember that legislation itself is only half the problem with Obamacare. Whatever bill passes, hundreds of bureaucrats in the federal agencies will have years to promulgate scores of regulations to govern the details of the law.


"This is where the real mischief could be done because most regulatory actions are effectuated beneath the public radar. It is thus essential, as just one example, that any end-of-life counseling provision in the final bill be specified to be purely voluntary … and that the counseling be required by law to be neutral as to outcome. Otherwise, even if the legislation doesn't push in a specific direction — for instance, THE GOVERNMENT REFUSING TREATMENT — the regulations could." (Emphasis added.)


Who'll let us know what's really being decided about our lives — and what is set into law? To begin with, Charles Lane, Wesley Smith and others whom I'll cite and add to as this chilling climax of the Obama presidency comes closer.


Condemning the furor at town-hall meetings around the country as "un-American," Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi are blind to truly participatory democracy — as many individual Americans believe they are fighting, quite literally, for their lives.


I wonder whether Obama would be so willing to promote such health care initiatives if, say, it were 60 years from now, when his children will — as some of the current bills seem to imply — have lived their fill of life years, and the health care resources will then be going to the younger Americans?