Housing, there aint no cure....

Cure rates on mortgages are exactly what you think they are, people that are delinquent on their mortgage payments returning their payment status to current and therefore "curing" their delinquency. One would think that in a recovery these cure rates would be increasing.....
From Businesswire

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--While the number of U.S. prime RMBS loans rolling into a delinquency status has recently slowed, this improvement is being overwhelmed by the dramatic decrease in delinquency cure rates that has occurred since 2006, according to Fitch Ratings. An increasing number of borrowers who are 'underwater' on their mortgages appear to be driving this trend, as Fitch has also observed.

Delinquency cure rates refer to the percentage of delinquent loans returning to a current payment status each month. Cure rates have declined from an average of 45% during 2000-2006 to the currently level of 6.6%. It is important not only to observe total roll rates, but delinquency cure rates as well, according to Managing Director Roelof Slump.

'Recent stability of loans becoming delinquent do not take into account the drastic decrease in delinquency cure rates experienced in the prime sector since the peak of the housing market,' said Slump. 'While prime has shown the most precipitous decline, rates have dropped in other sectors as well.'

In addition to prime cure rates dropping to 6.6%, Alt-A cure rates have dropped to 4.3%, from an average of 30.2%, and subprime is down to 5.3% from an average of 19.4%. 'Whereas prime had previously been distinct for its relatively high level of delinquency recoveries, by this measure prime is no longer significantly outperforming other sectors,' said Slump.

I think that it is important for me to reiterate this statistic. Cure rates for prime mortgages have declined to 6.6% from 45%. Keep in mind that we have a lot of prime and Alt-A mortgages resetting in the next year or 2, and delinquent payers probably don't have the best chance of refinancing at a significantly better rate. Now think about what that means for the banks who are holding these loans........

Fed Official: Real Unemployment Rate is 16%

From Breitbart:

The real US unemployment rate is 16 percent if persons who have dropped out of the labor pool and those working less than they would like are counted, a Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.

"If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking -- so-called discouraged workers -- and those who are working fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, said Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart.

He underscored that he was expressing his own views, which did "do not necessarily reflect those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee," the policy-setting body of the central bank.

Lockhart pointed out in a speech to a chamber of commerce in Chattanooga, Tennessee that those two categories of people are not taken into account in the Labor Department's monthly report on the unemployment rate. The official July jobless rate was 9.4 percent.

Close Update: A whole lotta nuttin.

So apparently what today indicates is that the market is going nowhere without gapping either up or down. It is going to take a pretty violent move to get things going and even so, moves that start from a standstill (which is what these past 5 or so trading days have been technically) are usually retraced at some point. So back to wait and see mode.

Idea: Long Heart Surgeons

New KFC "Double Down" Dumps the Bun

Sometimes a sandwich is so big, so tasty and so thick that those carb-loaded bookends we call buns just aren’t necessary.
That’s the premise behind Kentucky Fried Chicken’s latest calorie-laden creation: the Double Down Chicken Sandwich, two chicken fillets hugging cheeses, bacon and sauce, sans the bun.

KFC hasn’t released actual caloric counts, but has told media outlets such as the Huffington Post that it estimates the sandwich to weigh in at roughly 600 calories. The Vancouver Sun, however, estimates the Double Down at nearly double that number, with 1,228 calories.

KFC has made more than one headline this year with new products. Untold numbers of consumers flocked to the chain earlier this year hoping to get a free taste of KFC’s new grilled chicken. But Georgians shouldn’t rush to a nearby KFC for this bird, however, as it’s only being tested in parts of Nebraska and Rhode Island.

No word on whether the Double Down will be offered with two grilled fillets, instead.

Long awaited Market update

The yellow line I have drawn is the proverbial line in the sand. There are no outstanding requirements above the current price level of 1025 and there are a couple of outstanding requirements below. Most notably the 1018'50. For me to "buy" any rally to new highs having durable sponsorship I would expect that level and even down to 1015 to be tested before setting new highs. However this market has been ignoring most of what I like to see in a neat and tidy pattern so I will try and summarize best what the most likely outcomes will be:

If we close above this "line in the sand" then we are going back up to test the highs and any subsequent closes above 1035 will make me convinced we are in the beginnings of a new upleg to 1100+

If we close below the LITS (convincingly) then this means we are on our way to 1018'50 and then I will have to reassess depending on price action. But if 1015 breaks convincingly, let that be a great indicator that we might be starting a HUGE down leg back to at least 880 and maybe even 666

Ted Kennedy Dead at 77

Boston.com

Senator Edward M. Kennedy, who carried aloft the torch of a Massachusetts dynasty and a liberal ideology to the citadel of Senate power, but whose personal and political failings may have prevented him from realizing the ultimate prize of the presidency, died at his home in Hyannis Port last night after a battle with brain cancer. He was 77.

Chart it to Me!

Not really much to say here... You know what they say about pictures....

Global Recession Status

A very cool interactive map. Doesn't mean much, shows us where we have been. The important thing is where we are going......

Picture of the Day

Seth Godin on the tribes we lead

Absolutely fascinating... please watch

Court Orders Federal Reserve to Disclose Emergency Loan Details

Very Excited about all the upcoming data that must be divulged... From Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve must for the first time identify the companies in its emergency lending programs after losing a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.
...
The Fed has refused to name the financial firms it lent to or disclose the amounts or the assets put up as collateral under 11 programs, most put in place during the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression, saying that doing so might set off a run by depositors and unsettle shareholders.
...
The judge said the central bank “improperly withheld agency records” ... She gave the Fed five days to turn over documents it told the reporters it located ...

The case is Bloomberg LP v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 08-CV-9595, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

Well thats not how its supposed to happen!

I apologize for not updating my TA for quite some time now. I am in the process of switching charting software and i got caught up in all the new features. Anyhoo, just a quick note on today's morning action. Failed breakouts are not good for bullish chart patterns and unless we can close above the previous high of 1035 this damages any bullish sentiment tremendously. I will follow up after the close with some potential targets and what this means short term and long term.