Wednesday, September 23, 2009

An Interesting Fact about this Overbought Market

The S&P 500 is now trading 20% higher than its 200-day average. Although there have been rare occasions this deviation has been higher, note that this is typically an "extreme".

• During the 2002/2007 bull market, we never hit +20%.
• 1986 and 1987 saw 19%/20%, but no higher.
• 1982 saw the deviation briefly above 20%.
• 1975 saw a marginal move above 20%.
• 1943 saw the 20% deviation again prove good resistance.
• 1935 and 1936 though saw the deviation above 20%.
• 1933 saw the S&P 500 59% rich to its 200-day.
• 1929 saw the 20% deviation again prove good resistance.
• 94% S&P 500 stocks also now above their 200-day average.

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