Thursday, August 6, 2009

Midday Update


Well sellers continue to chip away at support in the 992-993 area and like i said in the pre-open update the gap open was ineffectual buying at its best. Now with the all important employment report awaiting the markets I doubt we'll see any break of 992 nor any real extension above 1000. My guess right now is that we'll probably range between the two for the balance of the day. No one wants to stick their head out ahead of the report tomorrow morning.

David Feherty plays a joke on Tiger woods



Apparently a longstanding "fart feud" has existed between Feherty and Tiger Woods and when this happened at the Buick Invitational Feherty had this to say:
“This was a staggering fart…this was a stump fart essentially that was clearly a deliberate move…To the best of my knowledge, I’ve never made air with anything like that…It certainly wasn’t Stevie so people are going to look at me…It came from behind me…I wouldn’t look too closely to the bottom of it because I’m not entirely sure it was….vaporous.”

It has been confirmed that it was Feherty using an Iphone application.

I know this isn't relevant to investing but fart jokes still make me laugh.

UPDATE: From Deadspin

Randy Youngman of the Orange County Register concurs:

A few years ago, I interviewed Feherty before the Toshiba Classic at Newport Beach Country Club, and he confessed that he, Woods and Tiger's caddie, Steve Williams, sometimes have off-camera farting contests during tournaments

David Feherty has done his best to compete with the living legend, but like so many golfers have done before when facing Tiger head-to-head, he's crumbled under the pressure. If fact, there was apparently one particular back nine collapse worthy of Greg Norman at Augusta:

Seconds before Feherty was about to interview Woods after a round, the broadcaster thought he would be funny and – and, uh, his strategy backfired.

"I (soiled) myself," Feherty said.

And then the camera lights came on.

Pre-Open Update


Well after testing the 982 level yesterday and a failure to break it, we again tested 992 overnight and the rally you see here is indicating to gap up. I know I am sounding like a broken record here but moves such as these are not from durable buyers but momentum players losing steam creating a topping pattern. This probe of prior highs (1007.75) is a retest of prior highs and the key here is trying to identify a change of guard. Any real attempt to push prices higher may indicate a new rally leg forming. A close in the teens (1015+)would indicate as much to me. Otherwise I am still deeming this a topping pattern.

The pattern i drew out is a downward sloping triangle which indicates that the market intends to break downward. Any break upward is usually a false break. This pattern occurring indicates to me that unless we get a new rally leg today, the market is in the process of topping.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Tim Duy tempers my bearishness

A very compelling argument by Tim Duy over at Fed Watch
Never underestimate the power of money. Especially lots of money coming on top of a cyclical recovery that is almost textbook at least as far as the timing is concerned. To be sure, you can question the sustainability of the recovery, the breadth or health of the recovery, the nature of job growth. I have questioned all repeatedly and fail to see that the conditions that have dominated the US economic story for the past 25 years - primarily, a continued reliance on consumer spending to propel growth - can continue in the face of massive household debt burdens and stiffer (or, more accurately, realistic underwriting conditions). But regardless of these concerns, evidence is clearly pointing to a shift in economic conditions for the better. Moreover, I suspect it will take at least two more quarters at a minimum - and maybe closer to two more years - before the more pessimistic or optimistic visions of the future will come into clear view. Until then, it seems likely the appetite for risk will continue to climb, and all the liquidity - liquidity fueled by new guarantees that massive financial institutions are too big too fail - has to go somewhere.

Which is to say that no matter how pessimistic you are in the medium and longer term, you need to recognize the potential for massive moves in markets as risk taking perpetuates more risk taking. And as long as that risk taking flows in directions that do not fundamentally change the US jobs and, by extension, wage picture, it is difficult to imagine the Federal Reserve will do anything but let the party role on.

He Concludes
Bottom Line: Incoming data continue to confirm the cyclical turn in the US economy. But that cyclical turn is supported by a massive amount of government intervention, in and of itself a testament to the fragility of the recovery. The Fed will be in no rush to withdraw that liquidity - especially if a jobless recovery emerges. Indeed, it is easy to tell a story where the Fed holds rates near zero into 2011. That also means the Fed will not rock any boats. Thus, the jobless recovery is almost a dream come true for those trades dependent on easy Fed policy - which seem to be virtually all trades at the moment. Although there has been talk of the Fed acting preemptively to curtail bubbles, I am skeptical that any such action would be taken with US unemployment staring at double-digits. And there certainly would be no rush to react if low US interest rates fueled bubbles outside US borders; that, after all, would be the responsibility of foreign policymakers.
Head on over and give it a read as he makes a compelling argument against being bearish. You can't win at a rigged game

Great Post on the Bank's Stress Test

Lengthy, but well worth the read.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/08/run-for-hills-fed-plans-to-build-on.html

SNL someimes is funny. Geithner parody SNL

Wow KGB much?

This comes directly from the whitehouse.gov website
There is a lot of disinformation about health insurance reform out there, spanning from control of personal finances to end of life care. These rumors often travel just below the surface via chain emails or through casual conversation. Since we can’t keep track of all of them here at the White House, we’re asking for your help. If you get an email or see something on the web about health insurance reform that seems fishy, send it to flag@whitehouse.gov.

Umm... so basically what they are saying is to narc on your comrade.... errr friends, neighbors, etc. about spreading views contrary to the White House's agenda?

This just in... Brad Woodhouse of the DNC released the following statement
(Redstate)

Die Republikaner und ihre verbündeten Gruppen - verzweifelt nach zwei aufeinander folgenden Wahlen zu verlieren und alle wichtigen politischen Kampf auf dem Capitol Hill - Anstiftung sind wütend Monster von einer kleinen Zahl von wütenden rechten Extremisten von K Street Lobbyisten zu stören nachdenklich Diskussionen über die Zukunft der Gesundheitsversorgung in Amerika, die sich in Congressional Bezirke im ganzen Land. Allerdings, wie wir gesehen, auf der McCain-Palin Kundgebungen im vergangenen Jahr, wo Menschenmassen waren Ködern mit Schreie der “sozialistischen”, “kommunistisch”, und wo die birthers Bewegung geboren wurde - das Monster von Extremisten sind nicht interessiert an einer Diskussion über nachdenklich die Fragen - aber wie einige republikanische Führer gesagt haben - sie sind interessiert in “Bruch” den Präsidenten und die Zerstörung seiner Präsidentschaft. Diese Mobs sind bussed von finanziell gut ausgestattete, hoch organisierten Gruppen von republikanischen Genossenschaften und finanziert durch die besonderen Interessen, die verzweifelt versucht, um die Agenda für den Wandel der Präsident gewählt wurde, um in Washington.Trotz der Überschrift grabbing Charakter dieser böse Monster und ihre Störungen von Veranstaltungen, sie sind nicht widerspiegeln, wenn das amerikanische Volk auf die Fragen - oder die Hunderte von Tausenden von nachdenklichen Diskussionen rund um Küche Tabellen-, Wasser-Kühler und in den Häusern. Die rechte Extremisten “Dinge wie die Nutzung der Teufel Hörner auf die Bilder von unseren gewählten Vertretern, hängen die Mitglieder des Kongresses in Bildnis, atemlos Befragung der Präsident der Bürgerschaft und der Verwendung von Nazi-und SS-Symbole wie die nur zeigt, wie außerhalb des Mainstream der Republikanischen Partei und ihre Verbündeten sind. Diese Art von Wut und Zwietracht nicht dienen Republikaner auch im Jahr 2008 - und es ist verpflichtet, nach hinten wieder.

Have a good day Comrades.

Pre-Open Update 8/5/09



The mad rush at the close to push the market higher was ultimately proven false as overnight buyers attempted to gap above yesterdays close only to be rejected (I believe the ADP # caused the rejection). This AM is currently hovering at Mondays globex high and my TA indicates that once again we have an outstanding globex low at 999 that should be tested. Breaking under yesterdays afternoon lows indicates we are going back down to test 992 (Tuesday morning's low) and 988.50(Monday morning's low) which still remain outstanding for a retest.

Still short term bullish. The only real outcome that might indicate that sellers are indeed back in force would be an opening surge to test the 106.50 area by a point or 2 and a complete rejection back down and a close under 992.00.

More Cash for Clunkers Data Points

Courtesy of Bloomberg via Drudge:

Four of Top ‘Clunkers’ Model Purchases Are Foreign
Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Four of the top five models sold so far under the U.S. “cash for clunkers” program, aimed at boosting the auto industry, are made by foreign automakers, according to Transportation Department data.

Ford Motor Co.’s Focus was the top seller, followed by Toyota Motor Corp.’s Corolla, Honda Motor Co.’s Civic and Toyota’s Prius and Camry, data from the department showed today.

So this bill was passed to try and help the American car companies that took the bailout money. And the top 5 sellers are Ford (who didn't take any bailout money) Toyota, and Honda. Any buy American provisions were nixed from the bill due to WTO obligations and foreign complaints:
Initial clunkers legislation sponsored by Representative Betty Sutton, an Ohio Democrat, would have barred discounts for new vehicles manufactured overseas and offered higher payments for cars and trucks produced in the U.S. than for those made in Canada and Mexico. The “Buy American” provision was dropped from the final legislation because of opposition from foreign automakers and free-trade advocates who said it would conflict with U.S. obligations to the World Trade Organization.

“The share of cars sold to date under this program is actually larger than the traditional market share” for the U.S. automakers, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters today. Providing tax incentives only for U.S. companies “would have caused some legal and trade problems,” he said.

Again.. explain to me why we think anything planned by the government in a hurry will be effective?

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Forget the Headline! The Important info is at the end of the article

The AP comes out with a story that gets picked up by Drudge Report and the headline is as follows:
Guard troops may be needed in troubled Ala. county
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. – The sheriff in Alabama's most populous county may call for the National Guard to help maintain order, a spokesman said Tuesday, after a judge cleared the way for cuts in the sheriff's budget and hopes dimmed for a quick end to a budget crisis.

In my opinion, this is the most important part of the article sort of a canary in the coalmine so to speak for all of you out there still holding desperately onto your precious yield from your Municipal securities.

The budget crisis comes as the county seeks to avoid filing what would be the largest municipal bankruptcy ever over some $3.9 billion in sewer bonds it can no longer afford to repay. As with the tax problem, elected leaders can't agree on a solution.

The sewer system is still operating normally, but the county has closed four satellite courthouses because of the loss of the revenue from the occupational tax. Residents are standing in line for hours at the main courthouse to do routine business like renewing car tags.

Mark my words, $3.9 billion will not be the largest municipal bankruptcy for long. I'm sure we'll see much larger this year or early next.

High end real estate part 2

I love how he says now this one has dropped into the eights....

Midday Update

Not even bothering to touch yesterdays lows, the market powered higher just proving how entrenched these momentum players are. Just another example of unsustainable buying continuing without paying attention to technicals. At some point we will be back down to the origin of this rally (S&P 880). Keep in mind people that bear market rallies are fierce. John Maynard Keynes once said:
The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
Play your positions wisely. I'd keep tight stops on all my longs.