GDP & the Upcoming Elections

 Zero Hedge has identified two credible reasons to believe that second quarter GDP is going to get revised downward — wayyyyyy downward (internal link is in original; bold is mine):

As JPM (Michael Feroli at JP Morgan) reported earlier, revision in BEA (Uncle Sam’s Bureau of Economic Analysis) assumptions on wholesale and non-durable inventory alone will push Q1 GDP from the official 2.4% to 1.3%. Today’s data (on trade) is the last nail in the Q2 GDP number, and according to analyst(s) will take out another 0.4% from the GDP, meaning that when all is said and done, Q2 GDP will come out to sub-1%.

Geez, I was hoping that the trade data foreshadowed upward revisions, not downwards.
The late August and late September revisions to GDP will come out just as many in the 85 (a group whose votes are largely swayed by headlines,and make up 85% of the population) are relatively disengaged and are beginning to really pay attention to the fall electoral contests (okay, maybe thanks to the Tea Party movement it might —  be more like 75%-80%). If the GDP revisions are as bad as JPM and ZeroHedge are estimating (conceivably they could be worse, given the track record of downward revisions for other reasons in recent quarters), the political fallout will be immense.

That final week before elections will certainly get interesting............