Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Pre-Open Update 8/4/09



My suspicions about yesterdays gap up rally were confirmed when the balance of the day was spent rallying at inappropriate timed intervals. The failure to close above the afternoons highs (also the daily high) confirmed that this was not very durable buying.

Overnight I was proved correct as the market sold off pretty much the entire globex session and is now forming a symmetrical triangle at yesterdays open. (the first break of any triangle is usually false) I will caution that patterns such as these do not have as much predictability during the pre-open session.

For me to think that sellers are starting to take control from these momentum buyers we need some sort of break of yesterdays low (988.75)

Yesterdays low also holds some sort of importance to me in that my TA indicates that it requires some sort of retest. How this retest occurs and the result following the retest will provide me with some great clarity as to whether or not buyers or sellers are in control of this market.

I will update you with my thoughts once yesterdays low is tested.

No comments: